BEST BUYS ~ SOUTH MAUI CONDOS

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South Maui Condominium 

Best Buy List 

As of February 18, 2010 

  

Price                Condominium             Loc      Vac      Comments 

  

$   135,900      Waipuilani 206                         NK      N         1BR (REO) Loc Price! 

$   169,000      Kalama Terrace P101             SK       Y         1BR Location Price! 

$   175,000      Kihei Shores J203 (New)         SK       N         2BR Oceanviews & Price! 

$   180,000      Maui Gardens A207                 SK       N         1BR (short sale)Nice &Price 

$   194,000      Kihei Garden Estate G103        NK      Y         1BR (REO) Loc & Price! 

$   199,000      Keonekai Village 18201           SK       N         2BR (short sale)Nice &Price 

  

$   241,000      Kihei Kai 3 (New)                    NK      Y         1BR (short sale) Oceanfront! 

$   289,957      Kauhale Makai 329                  NK      Y         1BR Price Views Oceanfront 

$   295,000      Hale Kai O Kihei 213               NK      Y         1BR (short sale) Oceanfront! 

$   325,000      Maui Banyan H114                  SK       Y         1BR Location & Price! 

$   335,000      Luana Kai A106                       NK      Y         1BR Price & Oceanfront! 

$   335,000      Kamole Sands 4-208               SK       Y         1BR Price & Location! 

$   345,000      Awihi Townhouse 4                  SK       N         2BR Price Gar Oceanviews! 

$   395,000      Island Sands 410 (New)           M         Y         1BR Nice Oceanfront! 

  

$   429,000      Kam Beach Royale 605            SK       Y         1BR Nice Oceanviews! 

$   489,000     Grand Champions 37                W        Y         2BR Large & Price! 

$   498,000      Grand Champions 172 W        Y         1BR On GC & Oceanviews! 

$   535,000      Wailea Fairway Villa P103       W        N         2BR On GC & Oceanviews! 

$   579,000      Kihei Beach 503 (New)            NK      Y         1BR Nice Oceanfront! 

$   599,000      Palms at Wailea 202                 W        Y         1BR Nice & Price! 

  

$   670,000      Wailea Ekolu 304                     W        Y         1BR GC & Oceanviews! 

$   695,000      Wailea Ekolu 1405                   W        Y         2BR Price, Quiet Oceanviews 

$   729,000      Royal Mauian 508                    SK       Y         1BR Beautiful Oceanfront! 

$   759,000      Wailea Palms 3302                   W        N         1BR Price Loc & Views! 

$   825,000      Palms at Wailea 206                 W        Y         2BR Price Loc & Nice! 

$   849,000      Kai Malu 20B                          W       N         3BR Res Condo & Price! 

$   999,000      Hokulani Golf Villa 4    SK       N         2BR Res Golf Course Condo! 

  

$1,150,000      Hale Hui Kai 210                     SK       Y         2BR Beautiful Oceanfront! 

$1,249,000      Royal Mauian 610                    SK       Y         2BR Beautiful Oceanfront! 

$1,795,000      Hoolei T-1                               W        Y         3BR New, Large, Price! 

$2,700,000      Makena Surf B206                   Mak     Y         2BR Spectacular Oceanfront! 

$2,950,000      Polo Beach 802                        W        Y         2BR Spectacular Oceanfront! 

$3,900,000      Wailea Elua 1005                     W        Y         2BR Spectacular Oceanfront! 

  

(New) = New Additions to List            Vac = Vacation Rentals allowed in project 

INTEREST RATES MAY GO UP VERY SOON! See Tricia's newsletter

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Provided to you
By
 Tricia Morris

President/Owner, x116

 

 Tricia Morris
Hawaii’s Premiere Mortgage
Office: 800 813-7711 x116
On Maui: 808 874-8800 x116
E-Mail: tricia@mortgagemaui.com
Website: www.mortgagemaui.com

 

 

 

For the week of Feb 15, 2010 — Vol. 8, Issue 7

 

 

 

Last Week in Review

 

 

“IT AIN’T OVER TIL IT’S OVER.” Yogi Berra. And whether you find those words deeply wise or simply puzzling…The Fed has told us repeatedly that their massive purchasing program of Mortgage Backed Securities is just about over – and this translates to home loan rates rising in the near future.
As you can see in the chart below, the amounts of Mortgage Backed Securities the Fed is purchasing are slowly dwindling, as the program is set to wrap up by March 31st, and are clearly trying to ration out the remaining portion. Last week, the Fed purchased $11 Billion in Mortgage Backed Securities, which leaves them with $66 Billion to spend out of their original $1.25 Trillion allotment. So about 95% of the total has already been spent and has purchased about 3 out of every 4 home loans during the past year. When such a large buyer leaves the market, it is very likely that prices will worsen.
This is very important because as the Fed has less money to last through the remaining months of the program, their ability to keep home loan rates low via their purchasing power will wane. And those who can take advantage of currently low home loan rates do not wait, as the clock on these historically low rates is ticking.
———————–
Chart: The Fed’s Purchase of MBS (By Month)

Also last week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke provided a speech on a number of topics, perhaps the most important of these being switching the Fed’s benchmark from the commonly watched and monitored Fed Funds Rate, to a new benchmark of “interest paid on excess reserves”. Banks are required to keep money on reserve with the Fed and may, from time to time, have an excess in those reserves, which the Fed can pay interest on.
Since the Fed Funds Rate is only a “target rate”, banks can still lend money to other bank overnight at their own negotiated rate. Sometimes near the end of the trading day, banks have been lending their excess reserves out overnight for a rate that differs from the Fed Funds Rate, but is higher than interest on those reserves from The Fed.  This undermines the Fed’s ability to set a reliable benchmark. 
The Fed wants to fix this by using the amount of interest they pay as the new benchmark, since the Fed has total control of this rate, which should be right at or just under the Fed Funds Rate. 
There is one major take-away from this discussion – it appears that the Fed is getting their ducks in a row as they prepare to push interest rates higher. And when they do increase rates, the Fed does not want any obstacles that may undermine their plan.
AND SPEAKING OF OBSTACLES THAT COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS…WATER DAMAGE CAN WREAK HAVOC ON YOUR HOME AND YOUR FINANCES, AND IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT TO WATCH OUT FOR DURING COLD WINTER MONTHS. CHECK OUT THE MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW ARTICLE BELOW FOR TIPS ON PROTECTING YOUR HOME!

 

Forecast for the Week

 

 

The financial markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Presidents Day, and in terms of economic reports, there won’t be much action until midweek. On Wednesday, we’ll get a look at the health of the housing industry with reports on Housing Starts and Building Permits for January.
It will be interesting to watch the housing reports over the next several months, as many people are acting to take advantage of currently low home loan rates that may be on the rise soon, as well as the potential of a juicy tax credit. Remember – the Homebuyers Tax Credit is only available on homes purchased with a contract date before April 30th, and the transaction must settle by June 30th.
We’ll also get an update on inflation this Thursday, as the Producer Price Index will be released. This index measures price changes for wholesalers, and prefaces the more important Consumer Price Index coming on Friday, which measures changes in the price paid by consumers for goods and services. These reports are both particularly important, as the Fed will be watching very carefully for any signs of inflation. If inflation begins to rise, the Fed will have no choice but to begin to hike rates to fight off the dangers that inflation could pose to our economy.
In addition to those reports, we’ll get our weekly look at employment through the Initial Jobless Claims data. Last week’s report showed some encouraging signs, but there is still a long way to go before we’ll see stabilization in the Unemployment Rate and some meaningful job creation.  At the moment, 6.3 Million people remain unemployed for over six months – an increase of 5 million since the start of the recession in December of 2007. To reach the White House’s projection of a 6% unemployment rate by 2015, the US would need to create 225,000 jobs per month, every month, for the next five years. But that kind of long term job growth has never been seen before. The year 2006, was the only year in US history that had job gains average over 225,000. But that was for just a single year – doing it for five years may be too much of a stretch.   
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bond prices and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, Bond prices fell early last week due to weak results from the Treasury auctions, but were able to rally towards the end of the week. When Bond prices are moving higher, home loan rates are improving – so I’ll be watching out to see if the current ground can be held. If you have any questions about how home loan rates move – and if an opportunity exists that would benefit you – please don’t hesitate to call or email me.
Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 12, 2010)

 

The Mortgage Market View…

 

 

Keeping Your Home Safe from Water Damage
Preventing water damage in your home is important at any time of year, but particularly in the winter when the cold weather can wreak havoc on plumbing. Here are some tips to make sure your water bill is as low as it should be…and that your home is as safe and dry as it needs to be:
Pay attention to your bill: Major fluctuations in water usage from one month to the next could mean that you have a problem. Taking just a few minutes to look at your bill each month could make a big difference in your wallet!
Inspect appliances: While much of your home’s plumbing can be hidden behind walls and cabinets, most of your appliances that use water can be easily inspected for potential leaks. Each month, take the time to inspect areas around your water heater, dishwasher, refrigerator, washing machine, sinks, and toilets. If any hoses or seals appear old or damaged, replace them. Also, inspect and repair obvious caulking and tile grout damage. It’s a small price to pay for what could be expensive repairs later.
Inspect the sewer line: Clear away build-up and roots from around your sewer line. Obstructions in this area could create major plumbing problems in the future.
Check your water pressure annually: This is easier than it sounds. Simply purchase a pressure gauge and attach it to the hose faucet. Normal results should range from 45 to 65 pounds per square inch (psi). A reading above 65 psi is considered high and could lead to problems down the line.
Find and fix leaks quickly: Make a habit of checking the main fixtures regularly so that when something out of the ordinary occurs you will notice it and take action immediately. Sometimes, however, slow water leaks aren’t very obvious. A great way to discover hidden leaks is to look for stains in areas where water is often used. For example, if you see even small stains on the cabinet floors beneath the sink in the kitchen or bathrooms, you could have a problem. Warm spots in the floor or tiles could also be an indication of hidden water damage.
Before a vacation: The worst thing to come home to after a great vacation is major water damage. Consider turning off your water while you’re gone. For many homeowners there is a separate shut-off valve for the home that doesn’t affect your irrigation system.
The bottom line is that a little time and effort can make a big difference when it comes to keeping your home safe and dry, and your expenses at a minimum!

 

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

 

 

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.
Economic Calendar for the Week of February 15 – February 19

Date
 ET
 Economic Report
 For
 Estimate
 Actual
 Prior
 Impact
Wed. February 17 08:30 Building Permits Jan 615K   653K Moderate
Wed. February 17 02:00 FOMC Minutes 1/27       HIGH
Wed. February 17 09:15 Industrial Production Jan 0.8%   0.6% Moderate
Wed. February 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jan 72.6%   72.0% Moderate
Wed. February 17 08:30 Housing Starts Jan 580K   557K Moderate
Thu. February 18 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Jan 0.8%   0.2% Moderate
Thu. February 18 08:30 Core Producer Price Index (PPI) Jan 0.1%   0.0% Moderate
Thu. February 18 10:00 Index of Leading Econ Ind (LEI) Jan 0.5%   1.1% Moderate
Thu. February 18 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Index Feb 17.0   15.2 HIGH
Thu. February 18 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 2/13 430K   440K Moderate
Fri. February 19 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Jan 0.3%   0.1% HIGH
Fri. February 19 08:30 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Jan 0.2%   0.1% HIGH

 

This newsletter was sent to you because you have indicated an interest in receiving communications from Premiere Mortgage, which we believe will help you in your business. If you wish to no longer receive these newsletters, please send your request to: tricia@mortgagemaui.com
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.
In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: tricia@mortgagemaui.com
If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:
Tricia Morris
535 Lipoa Pkwy, Suite 101
Kihei, HI 96753
          

MAUI HOME SALES UP! MAHALO TO THE HONOLULU ADVERTISER FOR THIS ARTICLE

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www.honoluluadvertiser.com

February 9, 2010

Maui home sales up 48% from 2009

Condo sales plunge 31%, but figures are skewed by project’s debut last year

by andrew gomes
Advertiser Staff Writer

Maui’s housing market experienced dramatic swings in sales of single-family homes and condominiums in January compared with the same month a year earlier.

There were 46 single-family home sales on the Valley Isle last month, a 48 percent rise over 31 in the same month a year before, according to the Realtors Association of Maui.

The strong gain coincided with big jumps in January sales reported earlier on O’ahu, Kaua’i and the Big Island. But for Maui the jump came off a dramatic year-ago low.

Sales in January 2009 marked a low for any month since February 1997, according to trade association data.

Also lackluster was the median sale price that was down 16 percent to $469,000 last month from $558,000 a year earlier.

The number of Maui condo sales was down 31 percent to 71 last month, from 108 a year earlier. Again, the year-ago figure was somewhat of an anomaly as the most for any month since 2007 when Hawai’i’s housing market was still hot.

A new condo project in Kä’anapali called Honua Kai helped produce many of the sales in January 2009, according to Terry Tolman, chief executive of the Realtors Association of Maui, which includes sales of previously owned and new homes in its data, unlike data compiled by the Honolulu Board of Realtors that excludes new-home sales.

The median price for Maui condos was down 47 percent to $424,000 last month from $805,000 a year earlier. Again, the swing was influenced by the Honua Kai project. In Kä’anapali, there were eight condo sales last month for a median $722,500. A year earlier, there were 69 sales for a median $1.17 million.

The median is a point at which half the sales were for a higher price and half for a lower price, so a large number of new luxury condos will push the median higher.

THANK YOU TRICIA MORRIS FOR ANOTHER GREAT NEWSLETTER!

Posted on by

 fOR YOUR REAL ESTATE SERVICES CONTACT

         THE HANSEN OHANA ~ www.MauiRealEstate.NET or 808-280-1650 or 800-291-5535 or email dad@MauiRealEstate.NET

 

 
Subject: Tricia Morris – Nine Terrifying Words
 

 

 

 
     
Provided to you
By
 Tricia Morris

President/Owner, x116

   Tricia Morris
Hawaii’s Premiere Mortgage
Office: 800 813-7711 x116
On Maui: 808 874-8800 x116
E-Mail: tricia@mortgagemaui.com
Website: www.mortgagemaui.com
      

 

For the week of Feb 01, 2010 — Vol. 8, Issue 4

 

 

Last Week in Review

 

 

 

“THE NINE MOST TERRIFYING WORDS IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE ARE: `I’M FROM THE GOVERNMENT, AND I’M HERE TO HELP.`” Ronald Reagan. And regardless of if those words do indeed terrify you or perhaps give you confidence, the government held center stage last week, with a pivotal Federal Reserve Board Policy Statement, President Obama’s first State of the Union address, and Ben Bernanke’s confirmation for another term as Fed Chairman.
First, let’s start with the Federal Reserve Board, who on the heels of their most recent meeting reiterated their important line, “rates will remain low for an extended period” in their Policy Statement. This tells us that the “carry trade” which has pushed Stocks, Commodities and even Bonds higher may continue, as the driving force of this trade – low interest rates – will likely provide a tailwind. This piece of the Statement was good news for Bonds and home loan rates. However, this was offset by further confirmation that the Fed’s Mortgage Backed Security purchase program will indeed end March 31st, 2010. This was bad news for Bonds and home loan rates, and overrode the “extended period” statement in terms of Bond market and home loan rate action.
Then on Wednesday evening, President Obama delivered his first official State of the Union address, and just like in his initial post-election speech, a big theme was job creation. He discussed a new jobs package, but no details on how much the package would cost or where the resources would be spent have been provided yet. With lots of money already spent with this goal in mind during 2009, and the jobs picture still worsening, hopes are high that future plans will be carefully crafted and targeted to achieve this important goal.
And finally – Ben Bernanke ultimately received a hard-won Senate confirmation for his second four-year term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, but it was a bit of a bruising confirmation fight. Bernanke has been under some criticism as he led the Fed in taking a series of extraordinary measures to protect the economy during the financial crisis, including the decision to help home loan rates stay low during 2009 and early 2010 via the aforementioned $1.25T Mortgage Backed Security purchase plan.
In other economic report news – last week’s Advanced read on 4th Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed a climb of 5.7%, and as you can see from the chart below, that was the best reading since the 3rd Quarter of 2003.
———————–
Chart: Gross Domestic Product (By Quarter)

And while it’s nice to see positive gains on this broad read on the economy, we need to take the report with a grain of salt. Last Friday’s report was only the first or the Advanced reading. So we still have two more reports – the Preliminary and the Final – due out regarding the 4th Quarter GDP. And in the past, we’ve seen some of the gains go away when the additional reports were released. In fact, just last quarter, the GDP reading dropped 2.2% from the Advanced reading to the Final report. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a similar revision lower this time, as when the economy slowed, businesses reduced their inventory rather than keeping their shelves full…and in the 4th Quarter, many businesses began to restock their shelves, with restocking accounting for 3.4 of the 5.7 percentage points in GDP growth. The problem is that sales haven’t increased along with the restocking. In fact, Consumer Spending actually declined when compared to the previous quarter. Th is means last week’s GDP report probably overstated the level of growth and, as a result, will likely be revised lower in the future.
Overall – Bonds and home loan rates experienced quite a bit of mid-week volatility while absorbing all the news, but ultimately ended up very close to where they had started.
CONSIDERING A QUICK WINTER GETAWAY, BUT WANT TO SAVE MONEY? NOW MIGHT BE A GREAT TIME TO SAVE ON A LAST-MINUTE TRIP. CHECK OUT THE VIEW ARTICLE BELOW FOR TIPS THAT CAN MAKE THAT GETAWAY MORE AFFORDABLE THAN EVER!

 

Forecast for the Week

 

 

 

This will be a busy week for economic reports, starting off with the Personal Consumption Expenditures report on Monday. This report measures consumer price changes, and also gives us a look at inflation.
We’ll also get a glimpse at Personal Income and Personal spending on Monday, as well as the Institute of Supply Managers Index, which is the king of all manufacturing indices, and is considered the single best snapshot of the factory sector.
By mid-week, the labor market will lead the big news. In addition to the latest Initial Jobless Claims numbers, ADP’s Employment Report will also be delivered. These two data points will lead the way to Friday’s official Jobs Report from the Labor Department. This report includes the latest information on job losses and the unemployment rate, as well as the average work week and hourly earnings. With all the recent talk about the job market, it will be important to get a current read on the situation.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds traded in a tight technical range last week between a ceiling of resistance at the 100-Day Moving Average and a floor of support at the 200-Day Moving Average – and as always, I’ll be watching carefully to see which way Bonds and home loan rates are headed.
Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 29, 2010)

 

The Mortgage Market View…

 

 

 

Last-Minute Travel Tips
Planning ahead is a good thing, and that’s definitely true when it comes to travelling. However, sometimes unforeseen circumstances – or a severe case of the winter blues – make planning far in advance almost impossible. If you ever need or decide to travel at the last minute, here are some tips to maximize savings.
Be flexible – If possible, be flexible with both your travel dates and the carrier you choose. Rigidity in either of these areas can easily translate into paying increased costs.
Know when to book – Most airlines file their Web specials on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. If possible, concentrate on flights departing from major hub airports and try to include a Saturday-night stay.
Search diligently – There is no shortage of great websites for purchasing discounted airfares and hotel rooms. In terms of airfares, don’t forget to check the airlines’ own websites, as some carriers do not appear on many of the discount websites.
Don’t forget about travel agents – Many travel agents will purchase bulk deals, giving them access to better prices. It’s definitely a good idea to make a few calls as part of your search.
Websites to know about – To save time, pay a visit to Bookingbuddy.com. Enter your search for a flight, hotel, or car rental and compare the prices offered by various sites (Expedia, Travelocity, Orbitz, etc.) with the click of one button. Another great resource is Lastminute.com, which posts some great last-minute deals, as well as options for your not-so-last-minute traveling.
When it comes to last-minute travel, the two most important things to remember are to be flexible and search hard. These tips apply whether you need – or want – to travel at the last minute!

 

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

 

 

 

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.
Economic Calendar for the Week of February 01 – February 05

Date
 ET
 Economic Report
 For
 Estimate
 Actual
 Prior
 Impact
Mon. February 01 08:30 Personal Income Dec 0.3%   0.4% Moderate
Mon. February 01 08:30 Personal Spending Dec 0.3%   0.5% Moderate
Mon. February 01 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE Dec NA   0.0% HIGH
Mon. February 01 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE YOY NA   1.4% HIGH
Mon. February 01 10:00 ISM Index Jan 55.2   55.9 HIGH
Tue. February 02 10:00 Pending Home Sales Dec 1.1%   -16.0% Moderate
Wed. February 03 10:00 ISM Services Index Jan 51.1   50.1 Moderate
Wed. February 03 08:15 ADP National Employment Report Jan -40K   -84K HIGH
Wed. February 03 10:30 Crude Inventories 1/29 NA   -3.89M Moderate
Thu. February 04 10:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 1/30 454K   470K Moderate
Thu. February 04 08:30 Productivity Q4 6.0%   8.1% Moderate
Fri. February 05 08:30 Non-farm Payrolls Jan 13K   -85K HIGH
Fri. February 05 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jan 10.0%   10.0% HIGH
Fri. February 05 08:30 Average Work Week Jan 33.2   33.2 HIGH
Fri. February 05 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jan 0.2%   0.2% HIGH

 

This newsletter was sent to you because you have indicated an interest in receiving communications from Premiere Mortgage, which we believe will help you in your business. If you wish to no longer receive these newsletters, please send your request to: tricia@mortgagemaui.com
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.
In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: tricia@mortgagemaui.com
If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:
Tricia Morris
535 Lipoa Pkwy, Suite 101
Kihei, HI 96753
Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.
          

 

 

THANK YOU TRICIA MORRIS FOR ANOTHER GREAT NEWSLETTER!

Posted on by

 fOR YOUR REAL ESTATE SERVICES CONTACT

         THE HANSEN OHANA ~ www.MauiRealEstate.NET or 808-280-1650 or 800-291-5535 or email dad@MauiRealEstate.NET

 

 
Subject: Tricia Morris – Nine Terrifying Words
 

 

 

 
     
Provided to you
By
 Tricia Morris

President/Owner, x116

   Tricia Morris
Hawaii’s Premiere Mortgage
Office: 800 813-7711 x116
On Maui: 808 874-8800 x116
E-Mail: tricia@mortgagemaui.com
Website: www.mortgagemaui.com
      

 

For the week of Feb 01, 2010 — Vol. 8, Issue 4

 

 

Last Week in Review

 

 

 

“THE NINE MOST TERRIFYING WORDS IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE ARE: `I’M FROM THE GOVERNMENT, AND I’M HERE TO HELP.`” Ronald Reagan. And regardless of if those words do indeed terrify you or perhaps give you confidence, the government held center stage last week, with a pivotal Federal Reserve Board Policy Statement, President Obama’s first State of the Union address, and Ben Bernanke’s confirmation for another term as Fed Chairman.
First, let’s start with the Federal Reserve Board, who on the heels of their most recent meeting reiterated their important line, “rates will remain low for an extended period” in their Policy Statement. This tells us that the “carry trade” which has pushed Stocks, Commodities and even Bonds higher may continue, as the driving force of this trade – low interest rates – will likely provide a tailwind. This piece of the Statement was good news for Bonds and home loan rates. However, this was offset by further confirmation that the Fed’s Mortgage Backed Security purchase program will indeed end March 31st, 2010. This was bad news for Bonds and home loan rates, and overrode the “extended period” statement in terms of Bond market and home loan rate action.
Then on Wednesday evening, President Obama delivered his first official State of the Union address, and just like in his initial post-election speech, a big theme was job creation. He discussed a new jobs package, but no details on how much the package would cost or where the resources would be spent have been provided yet. With lots of money already spent with this goal in mind during 2009, and the jobs picture still worsening, hopes are high that future plans will be carefully crafted and targeted to achieve this important goal.
And finally – Ben Bernanke ultimately received a hard-won Senate confirmation for his second four-year term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, but it was a bit of a bruising confirmation fight. Bernanke has been under some criticism as he led the Fed in taking a series of extraordinary measures to protect the economy during the financial crisis, including the decision to help home loan rates stay low during 2009 and early 2010 via the aforementioned $1.25T Mortgage Backed Security purchase plan.
In other economic report news – last week’s Advanced read on 4th Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed a climb of 5.7%, and as you can see from the chart below, that was the best reading since the 3rd Quarter of 2003.
———————–
Chart: Gross Domestic Product (By Quarter)

And while it’s nice to see positive gains on this broad read on the economy, we need to take the report with a grain of salt. Last Friday’s report was only the first or the Advanced reading. So we still have two more reports – the Preliminary and the Final – due out regarding the 4th Quarter GDP. And in the past, we’ve seen some of the gains go away when the additional reports were released. In fact, just last quarter, the GDP reading dropped 2.2% from the Advanced reading to the Final report. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a similar revision lower this time, as when the economy slowed, businesses reduced their inventory rather than keeping their shelves full…and in the 4th Quarter, many businesses began to restock their shelves, with restocking accounting for 3.4 of the 5.7 percentage points in GDP growth. The problem is that sales haven’t increased along with the restocking. In fact, Consumer Spending actually declined when compared to the previous quarter. Th is means last week’s GDP report probably overstated the level of growth and, as a result, will likely be revised lower in the future.
Overall – Bonds and home loan rates experienced quite a bit of mid-week volatility while absorbing all the news, but ultimately ended up very close to where they had started.
CONSIDERING A QUICK WINTER GETAWAY, BUT WANT TO SAVE MONEY? NOW MIGHT BE A GREAT TIME TO SAVE ON A LAST-MINUTE TRIP. CHECK OUT THE VIEW ARTICLE BELOW FOR TIPS THAT CAN MAKE THAT GETAWAY MORE AFFORDABLE THAN EVER!

 

Forecast for the Week

 

 

 

This will be a busy week for economic reports, starting off with the Personal Consumption Expenditures report on Monday. This report measures consumer price changes, and also gives us a look at inflation.
We’ll also get a glimpse at Personal Income and Personal spending on Monday, as well as the Institute of Supply Managers Index, which is the king of all manufacturing indices, and is considered the single best snapshot of the factory sector.
By mid-week, the labor market will lead the big news. In addition to the latest Initial Jobless Claims numbers, ADP’s Employment Report will also be delivered. These two data points will lead the way to Friday’s official Jobs Report from the Labor Department. This report includes the latest information on job losses and the unemployment rate, as well as the average work week and hourly earnings. With all the recent talk about the job market, it will be important to get a current read on the situation.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds traded in a tight technical range last week between a ceiling of resistance at the 100-Day Moving Average and a floor of support at the 200-Day Moving Average – and as always, I’ll be watching carefully to see which way Bonds and home loan rates are headed.
Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 29, 2010)

 

The Mortgage Market View…

 

 

 

Last-Minute Travel Tips
Planning ahead is a good thing, and that’s definitely true when it comes to travelling. However, sometimes unforeseen circumstances – or a severe case of the winter blues – make planning far in advance almost impossible. If you ever need or decide to travel at the last minute, here are some tips to maximize savings.
Be flexible – If possible, be flexible with both your travel dates and the carrier you choose. Rigidity in either of these areas can easily translate into paying increased costs.
Know when to book – Most airlines file their Web specials on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. If possible, concentrate on flights departing from major hub airports and try to include a Saturday-night stay.
Search diligently – There is no shortage of great websites for purchasing discounted airfares and hotel rooms. In terms of airfares, don’t forget to check the airlines’ own websites, as some carriers do not appear on many of the discount websites.
Don’t forget about travel agents – Many travel agents will purchase bulk deals, giving them access to better prices. It’s definitely a good idea to make a few calls as part of your search.
Websites to know about – To save time, pay a visit to Bookingbuddy.com. Enter your search for a flight, hotel, or car rental and compare the prices offered by various sites (Expedia, Travelocity, Orbitz, etc.) with the click of one button. Another great resource is Lastminute.com, which posts some great last-minute deals, as well as options for your not-so-last-minute traveling.
When it comes to last-minute travel, the two most important things to remember are to be flexible and search hard. These tips apply whether you need – or want – to travel at the last minute!

 

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

 

 

 

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.
Economic Calendar for the Week of February 01 – February 05

Date
 ET
 Economic Report
 For
 Estimate
 Actual
 Prior
 Impact
Mon. February 01 08:30 Personal Income Dec 0.3%   0.4% Moderate
Mon. February 01 08:30 Personal Spending Dec 0.3%   0.5% Moderate
Mon. February 01 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE Dec NA   0.0% HIGH
Mon. February 01 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE YOY NA   1.4% HIGH
Mon. February 01 10:00 ISM Index Jan 55.2   55.9 HIGH
Tue. February 02 10:00 Pending Home Sales Dec 1.1%   -16.0% Moderate
Wed. February 03 10:00 ISM Services Index Jan 51.1   50.1 Moderate
Wed. February 03 08:15 ADP National Employment Report Jan -40K   -84K HIGH
Wed. February 03 10:30 Crude Inventories 1/29 NA   -3.89M Moderate
Thu. February 04 10:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 1/30 454K   470K Moderate
Thu. February 04 08:30 Productivity Q4 6.0%   8.1% Moderate
Fri. February 05 08:30 Non-farm Payrolls Jan 13K   -85K HIGH
Fri. February 05 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jan 10.0%   10.0% HIGH
Fri. February 05 08:30 Average Work Week Jan 33.2   33.2 HIGH
Fri. February 05 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jan 0.2%   0.2% HIGH

 

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