Isle jobless rate dips to 6.1%

Unemployment was the lowest in two years during April, a state report says

By Alan Yonan Jr.
Article from: Star-Advertiser

The sluggish recovery in Hawaii’s labor market picked up speed in April with the unemployment rate falling to 6.1 percent, the lowest level in more than two years.

The improvement came after four straight months in which the jobless rate was stuck at 6.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to a report issued yesterday by the state Department of Labor and Industrial Relations. April’s unemployment rate was the lowest since January 2009, when it was 6 percent.

The report also showed that Hawaii fared better than the nation as a whole, which experienced an increase in the average unemployment rate to 9 percent in April from 8.8 percent in March.

The number of employed rose to 596,900 in April, an increase of 2,900 from March, according to the report. At the same time the number of those who were unemployed fell by 1,400 to 38,500.

The labor force data are derived from a telephone survey of households conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. A separate BLS survey of businesses in Hawaii showed that there was a net reduction of 300 payroll jobs in April from March. Despite the decline through the first four months of the year, job growth is running well above last year’s pace, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As a result, Hawaii’s job market is expected to expand in 2011 for the first time in four years, BLS data show.

The BLS surveys of households and businesses sometimes give conflicting views of the job market from month to month, but over time they generally show a similar trend.

The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization predicts payroll jobs will increase by 1.6 percent this year. UHERO forecasts Hawaii’s jobless rate to average 6 percent in 2011, down from 6.6 percent in 2010 and 6.8 percent in 2009.

Despite the overall improvement in the job market, there are specific industries, construction in particular, that continue to struggle. While the number of construction jobs increased by 400 in April from March, the industry is in the midst of a three-year decline, having lost more than 10,000 jobs since 2007. Construction jobs peaked that year when the industry employed about 39,100 workers a month.

That could change this year, in large part because of hiring associated with the rail project on Oahu, UHERO reported. The organization forecasts a 3.7 percent increase in construction jobs this year, with job growth focused on Oahu.

“Looking forward, the industry fortunes will differ considerably between Honolulu and the other three counties,” researchers wrote in the report, released yesterday.

“The beginnings of mass transit work will support an acceleration of construction job growth on Oahu over the next few years. While neighbor island construction will also begin to turn around, conditions will not warrant a rapid upturn in either residential or commercial construction.”

On a county-by-county basis, Honolulu County’s 4.6 percent jobless rate in April was the lowest in the state, the state Labor Department reported. Elsewhere, the rates were 7.1 percent in Maui County, 7.7 percent in Kauai County and 8.9 percent in Hawaii County. The county data are not adjusted for seasonal variations.

Besides the increase in construction jobs in April, the state reported an additional 400 jobs added in government, 200 in professional and business services and 100 in financial services.

Leisure and hospitality lost 1,300 jobs, in part because of the temporary closing of the Kona Village Resort and the Four Seasons Hualalai on Hawaii island that were damaged by the March 11 tsunami, the state reported. Trade, transportation and utilities lost another 700 jobs, according to the report.

Hawaii jobs expected to grow for first time in four years

By Star-Advertiser staff
Article from: Star-Advertiser

Hawaii’s job market is on pace to grow this year for the first time since 2007 and the visitor industry is expected to shrug off a drop in Japanese tourists, according to a state forecast released today.

Job creation, one of the last pieces of the economy to recover from the recent recession, is forecast to increase by 1.8 percent in 2011, the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism reported. That’s up from a 1.3 percent rise predicted by DBEDT in its last forecast three months ago. The number of jobs generated by the economy had fallen in 2008, 2008 and 2010.

DBEDT revised downward slightly the number of visitors it expects to travel to Hawaii this year because of the natural disasters in Japan, but it revised upward the total amount of visitor spending.

“We note that visitor arrivals from the rest of the world are still growing, especially visitors from Canada and that cruise visitor counts are growing at double digits during the first three months of the year,” said Richard Lim, DBEDT director.

“We are also pleased to see jobs are growing again in the areas outside of tourism, such as information, professional and business services, and educational services,” he said in a news release.

DBEDT is forecasting the number of non-agricultural payroll jobs to grow to 603,900 across the state this year, up from 593,200 last year. However, the 2011 forecast is still far below the 624,900 jobs in the economy in 2007 before employers began cutting back as a result of the economic downturn.

Hawaii hogs list of places families will see in summer

By Erika Engle
Article from: Star-Advertiser

Hawaii’s beaches are among the top summer destinations for families, according to a Travelocity booking data review released in advance of Memorial Day, the unofficial start of summer.

That’s sure to be music to visitor industry players’ ears and bottom lines.

Orlando, Fla., and Cancun, Mexico, were ranked Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, but Travelocity explains that Honolulu, at No. 3, was only one of the four Hawaii destinations in the top 10.

Travelocity points out that “getting to the world-famous Waikiki (is) a breeze” since direct-to-Honolulu flights can be had from many mainland markets. (it calls them “U.S. cities” as if Hawaii is not part of the U.S. Doesn’t the Roaming Gnome remember that, after his trip here?)

Maui is ranked the No. 4 summer destination for families, despite it being known as a famous honeymoon spot.

The No. 5 spot on the Travelocity summer-travel-for-families list is occupied by Kauai, which it describes as the “perfect island choice for active families and nature lovers.”

The fourth Hawaii destination is Kona, at No. 7. Travelocity informs readers that Kona is “an excellent destination from which to explore … the state’s most diverse” island, with an active volcano and snow-capped mountains. “Yes, there’s snow in Hawaii!” it parenthetically exclaims.

OK, we in the 808 state all know that’s true, but your columnist feels the need to point out that Mauna Kea rarely, if ever, bears a snowy head lei in the summer.

The rest of the top 10 is composed of No. 6, the Bahamas; No. 8, Puerto Vallarta, Mexico; No. 9, Turks and Caicos; and No. 10, the Dominican Republic.

The Travelocity list also cites average daily room rates for each destination, with Orlando, Fla., bearing the lowest at $87 and Turks and Caicos the highest at $248. Travelocity reports Hawaii’s ADRs as $136 for Honolulu, $181 for Maui, $154 for Kauai and $141 for Kona.

The trouble with such popularity rankings is that not everyone is a trend or popularity follower, and some are in fact crowd-averse to the point of steering away from things “everybody else” is doing.

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Maui April 2011 Sales Statistics

Brief Maui Statistics Overview:

April’s Sales Volume – April’s Residential Sales held steady at 87 homes sold, while Condo Sales retained most of last month’s gain at 119 units sold. Land sales came in at 14 lots sold.

April’s Median SALES prices – Home median prices rose again to $500,000 while Condo median prices rose to $340,000. Land median price dipped to $382,500.

Days on Market for Residential homes = 146 DOM, Condos = 141 DOM, Land = 362 DOM.

(General DOM Note: this is the average DOM for the properties that SOLD. If predominantly OLD inventory sells, it can move this indicator upward, and vice versa. RAM’s Days on Market are calculated from List Date to Closing Date [not contract date]. As such, it includes approximately 60 days of escrow time.) Also – Short Sales transactions can often take 4-6 months to close thereby extending the
marketplace’s average DOM.

“Year to Date Sales” numbers only compare January-April 2011 to January-April 2010. Short timeframe (monthly) views do not necessarily reflect the longer timeframe trends. Year to Date: Comparing January-April 2011 to January-April 2010 Residential unit sales rose
(+8%), average sold price = $670,632 (-9%), median price = $460,000 (-2%) and total dollar volume sold = $192,471,469 (-1%). This reflects the bump up last year due to 2009-2010 Federal Tax Credit programs and 2011 numbers will probably catch up as the year progresses. Condo unit sales increased (-6%), average sold price = $499,628 (-32%), median price = $321,250 (-25%). Total Condo dollar volume sold = $213,840,740 (-37%). Land – NOTE: Land Lot sales are such a small sampling that statistics in this property class are
not necessarily reliable indicators. Land lot sales decreased (-11%), average sold price = $720,201 (+27%), median price = $350,000 (-33%), Total dollar volume = $29,528,241 (+13%). Also, total sales for immediately past 12 months: Residential = 837, Condo = 1,121, Land = 121.

May 11, 2011 – Active/Pending/Contingent status inventory:
May April Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. July June May
Homes 935 958 964 953 963 974 976 1,001 981 994 1,008 1,007 1,040
Condos 1,203 1,305 1,331 1,379 1,383 1,371 1,347 1,394 1,455 1,503 1,412 1,423 1,449
Land 547 554 557 566 569 601 596 601 620 604 601 591 579

Current Absorption Rate base on this month’s Active inventory divided by April Sales is:
Residential = 9.6 months, Condo = 10.1 months, Land = 39 months.

IN A NUT SHELL…… the good, the bad….. AND THE ROAD AHEAD ……
Strong buyer-showing activity is now evidenced in actual reported sales. Residential and Condo unit sales for March and April show sustained increase over the previous six months. The next few months will reveal if this is just an uptick or a trend that lasts. Inventories have declined somewhat over the past 12 months and include many short sales and REO (bank owned) properties which will need to be absorbed as sales before we can move ahead to a more normal marketplace. Interest Rates are remaining near historic record lows which may help motivate would-be Buyers to go ahead and buy IF they can qualify. Current World and US events will have ripple effects on cost of living, consumer confidence, and eventually our Real Estate Market.
FOR SELLERS: Sellers who don’t really need to sell (just “fishing?”) should stay off the market, and clear the marketplace for those who REALLY have to sell. UNLESS- you are motivated to Upsize, Downsize or Upgrade – While selling now will net less, your next property will cost less. Sharpen your pencil, talk to your CPA and Realtor® to explore the hidden benefits or consequences. Make no assumptions that will sting later. To be successful, Sellers need to beat competing properties with better property condition, REALISTIC pricing, good marketing, and flexible, creative terms (Seller Second Loan, Agreement of Sale, Lease-with-option-to-buy, and Sale-with-lease-back to seller). Days on Market figures show that properties priced right will sell in a reasonable timeframe. “Priced Right” is still the determining factor. BEST Deals are selling, everything else is getting old. Pro-Active Sellers are getting their properties appraised, inspected and surveyed in advance to encourage knowledgeable offers from realistic Buyers. This can prevent unanticipated escrow fallout or Buyers whittling your price down during the transaction when previously unknown facts come to light. Unrealistic Sellers continue to be ignored by the market and miss current opportunities that later become woefully apparent. They may even end up in a Short Sale or Foreclosure situation that could have been avoided.
FOR BUYERS: Low interest rates may start to inch up. Buyers should get Pre-Approved so they can shop in confidence (fewer last minute disappointments due to non-funding loans). More “short-sales” and foreclosures are happening in the marketplace, yet they can be less of a bargain than they seem, requiring more hurdles to leap and more time (often 4-6 months) to close, if at all. Be prepared, but BE REALISTIC. Lenders are much more stringent in requirements for loan approval. First-Time Home Buyers – Many programs are available….. attend a First-Time Home Buyers workshop, get familiar with the process, get qualified/approved, do your homework to get your own home. Many current owners never thought they would be able to own until they attended a workshop, discovered they could own a home,
and are glad they did. This low point in the market is your rare chance, so check it out carefully.

Disclaimer: Zooming in on the figures of a specific geographic area or property type may lead to different conclusions than the overall view. Maui’s market place is much smaller than Oahu’s, and a few high or low sales have a greater effect on the statistical numbers without necessarily indicating a big market swing one way or another.

The above statistics and commentary were provided by RAM (The Realtors Association of Maui). For specific questions or to discuss your Maui real estate goals and needs please call The Hansens at (808)879-3667 any time. As always, we look forward to hearing from you.