Tricia Morris Shares Economic Info

Provided to you
By
Tricia Morris

President/Owner, x116

  Tricia Morris
Hawaii’s Premiere Mortgage
Office: 800 813-7711 x116
On Maui:
808 874-8800 x116
E-Mail:
tricia@mortgagemaui.com
Website:
www.mortgagemaui.com
 

 

 

For the week of Jan 18, 2010 — Vol. 8, Issue 3

 

 

Last Week in Review

 

 

“WHAT DO WE LIVE FOR, IF IT IS NOT TO MAKE LIFE LESS DIFFICULT FOR EACH OTHER?” George Eliot. The current crisis in Haiti certainly puts this sentiment into perspective. For information on how you can help, see the View article below.
Last week it was reported that the inflation measuring Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December came in lower than expected. Overall, CPI for all of 2009 was fairly tame. But as you can see in the chart below, the closely watched Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose to 1.8% year-over-year in December after hitting a multi-year low of 1.4% in August.
———————–
Chart: Core Consumer Price Index

So what does this mean for Bonds and home loan rates?
Clearly, inflation is tame at the moment…but slowly trending higher. The Fed will be watching this data very carefully in the coming months, as they seek to time perfectly the exit from what is essentially a zero rate environment. The Fed will likely err on the side of keeping the Fed Funds Rate lower for longer than they perhaps should, in order to avoid a “double dip” recession…but that will likely lead to more inflation down the road. Remember, Bonds and home loan rates hate inflation – so home loan rates are likely to trend higher as more inflation creeps into the economy.
Speaking of the Fed, they stepped up their Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) buying in the latest week, purchasing $14B in MBS, whereas the most recent prior purchases were around $9.5B. The Fed now has $113B left of their $1.25T allotted commitment, with the buying program set to wrap up on March 31st. The Fed’s purchases have helped home loan rates stay historically low – and although there has been some buzz about an extension of the program, it seems unlikely that will come to fruition. When the Fed purchases stop, home loan rates will be very susceptible to moving higher – so if we have not talked yet about your own home loan situation, or if you know of a friend, family member, neighbor or coworker who might like some advice, let’s be sure to connect very soon…time is of the essence.
The next Federal Reserve Policy Statement will be coming on January 27th, and they have gone out of their way to mention in the last several statements that the MBS buying program will not continue. Count on me to be listening closely when the Fed releases this next Statement, as this will help further gauge what home loan rates have in store.
In other news, Retail Sales for December came in well below expectations and were down from the 1.8% increase seen in November. While this suggests weakness in the Retail sector, it has to be taken with a grain of salt, as it is likely that frigid temperatures and snowy conditions throughout much of the country were contributing factors to the decline. Overall, 2009 was a very tough year for retail. Retail Sales for 2009 dropped 6.2% compared with 2008, which was the biggest decline on record, dating back to 1992.
There was some good news, however, on the manufacturing front, as the Empire State Manufacturing Index was reported above estimates, indicating manufacturing expansion in New York state and parts of New Jersey and Connecticut.
For the week overall Bonds were able to break above important technical levels, and home loan rates ended the week slightly better than where they began.

 

Forecast for the Week

 

 

The markets will be closed on Monday in observance of the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday, but plenty of news will follow later in the week. Wednesday brings more news from the inflation front, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) Report, which measures inflation at the wholesale level. Wednesday will also bring a read on the housing market, with the Housing Starts and Building Permits Report.
There’s also more manufacturing news ahead on Thursday with the Philadelphia Fed Report. Also in store for Thursday is another look at the weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report…so it’s sure to be an interesting week, with a variety of data for the markets to absorb.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates improved last week, largely due to tame inflation numbers and a decline in Stocks. In fact, Bonds were actually able to power through a tough technical “ceiling of resistance” at the 200-day Moving Average…but it remains to be seen if they will hold their gains. I’ll be watching closely to see if Bonds and home loan rates can build on their positive momentum in the coming week.
Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 15, 2010)

 

The Mortgage Market View…

 

 

A Helping Hand for Haiti
The catastrophe in Haiti cries out for all of us to do whatever we can to help. But many of us aren’t sure exactly how to help or which organization to entrust with a donation.
To help you make sure your donation makes as big a difference as possible, consider donating to AmeriCares, which is one of the many fine organizations helping Haiti through disaster relief. AmeriCares is in the business of disaster relief and has an extensive network on the ground in Haiti, so your money will go to get supplies directly to those stricken instead of setting up infrastructure. You can learn more about them and donate at http://www.americares.org.
Obviously, the current economy presents challenges for many of us, but if you are able to help, your donation will go a long way. Whether it is through AmeriCares, or some other organization of your choice, any assistance you provide can help ease the suffering of those in need.

 

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

 

 

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.
Economic Calendar for the Week of January 18 – January 22

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Wed. January 20 08:30 Building Permits Dec 585K   584K Moderate
Wed. January 20 08:30 Core Producer Price Index (PPI) Dec 0.2%   0.5% Moderate
Wed. January 20 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Dec 0.0%   1.8% Moderate
Wed. January 20 08:30 Housing Starts Dec 580K   574K Moderate
Wed. January 20 10:30 Crude Inventories 1/15 NA   NA Moderate
Thu. January 21 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 1/16 NA   NA Moderate
Thu. January 21 10:00 Index of Leading Econ Ind (LEI) Dec NA   0.9% Low
Thu. January 21 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Index Jan NA   20.4 HIGH

 

This newsletter was sent to you because you have indicated an interest in receiving communications from Premiere Mortgage, which we believe will help you in your business. If you wish to no longer receive these newsletters, please send your request to: tricia@mortgagemaui.com
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.
In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: tricia@mortgagemaui.com
If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:
Tricia Morris
535 Lipoa Pkwy, Suite 101
Kihei, HI 96753
Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.
          

Good News! Excellent Info!

Bringing the Dream of Homeownership Within Reach 

As part of its plan to stimulate the U.S. housing market and address the economic challenges facing our nation, Congress has passed new legislation that: 

• Extends the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit of up to $8,000 to first-time home buyers until April 30, 2010. 

• Expands the credit to grant up to $6,500 credit to current home owners purchasing a new or existing home between November 7, 2009 and April 30, 2010. 

• Income limits increased to $125,000 for single buyers, married couples up to $225,000. 

For more information visit: 

http://www.realtor.org/home_buyers_and_sellers/2009_first_time_home_buyer_tax_credit 

Brief Maui Statistics Overview: 

December’s Sales Volume – Residential Sales posted a 17-month high (90 sales) and 

Condo Sales rose to 80 units. Land sales dropped to 9 lots. 

December’s Median SALES prices – Homes rose to $477,000 while Condos remained nearly steady at $401,500. Land slumped to $305,000. 

Days on Market for Residential homes = 154 DOM, Condos = 170 DOM, Land = 111 DOM. 

Year to Date Sales numbers compare January/December 2009 to 

January/December 2008. Short timeframe (monthly) views do not necessarily reflect the longer timeframe trends. This month is the 2009 Year End and can be compared to 2008’s Year End (Dec. 2008) available at: 

Year to Date: Residential unit sales declined (-24%), average sold price = $713,946 (-14%), median price = $498,106 (-14%) and total dollar volume sold = $494,764,887 (-35%). 

Condo unit sales increased (4%), average sold price = $719,993 (-22%), median price = $450,000 (-18%). Total Condo dollar volume sold = $593,273,850 (-18%). 

Land – NOTE: Land Lot sales are such a small sampling that statistics in this property class are 

not necessarily reliable indicators. Land lot sales declined (-10%), average sold price = $1,111,387 (+12%), median price = $485,000 (-31%), Total dollar volume = $121,141,185 (+23%). 

Also, total sales for immediately past 12 months: Residential = 693, Condo = 824, Land = 109. December 7, 2010 – Active/Pending/Contingent status inventory: 

Current Absorption Rate base on this month’s inventory divided by Dec. Sales is: 

Residential = 11 months, Condo = 18.6 months, Land = 58 months. 

IN A NUT SHELL…… the good, the bad….. AND THE ROAD AHEAD …… 

The market seems to be getting its footing as Number of Sales increase, Inventory decreases, yet Median Prices bounce along the bottom. The inventory includes many short sales and REO (bank owned) properties which will need to be absorbed as sales before we can move ahead to a more normal marketplace, at which time prices will eventually start to rise. 

FOR SELLERS: Sellers who don’t really need to sell (just “fishing?”) should stay off the market, and clear the marketplace for those who REALLY have to sell

To be successful, Sellers need to beat competing properties with better property condition, REALISTIC pricing, good marketing, and flexible, creative terms (including lease-with-option-to-buy and sale-with lease- back to seller). Days on Market figures show that properties priced right will sell in a reasonable timeframe. “Priced Right” is still the determining factor. 

BEST Deals are selling, everything else is getting old. 

Pro-Active Sellers are getting their properties appraised, inspected and surveyed in advance to encourage knowledgeable offers from realistic Buyers. Doing this can prevent unanticipated escrow fallout. Unrealistic Sellers continue to be ignored by the market and miss current opportunities that later become woefully apparent. They may even end up in a Short Sale or Foreclosure situation that could have been avoided. 

FOR BUYERS: Continued low interest rates and Newly Extended first time/move-up homebuyer incentives provide plenty of options for Buyers who qualify. Buyers should get Pre-Approved so they can shop in confidence (fewer last minute disappointments due to non-funding loans). More “short-sales” and foreclosures are happening in the marketplace, yet they can be less of a bargain than they seem, requiring more hurdles to leap and more time (often 4-6 months) to close, if at all. Be prepared, but BE REALISTIC.  Posted by Maui Board of Realtors 

 

South Maui Condominium 

Best Buy List 

As of December 30, 2009 

  

Price                Condominium             Loc      Vac      Comments 

  

$   129,000      85 Walaka St #9                      SK       N         1BR Location, Price! 

$   150,000      Kalama Terrace P301 (New)   SK       Y         1BR Corner Unit, Price! 

$   175,000      Kihei Shores 1101                    SK       N         3BR (short sale) Price! 

$   189,900      Kihei Resort 127                      NK      Y         1BR (REO) Price! 

$   199,000      Keonekai Vill 8-202 (New)      NK      N         2BR Nice & Price! 

  

$   219,000      Kihei Kai Nani 130                  SK       Y         1BR Location, Price! 

$   225,000      Maui Vista 1104 (New)            SK       Y         1BR (short sale) Price! 

$   229,500      Kihei Gar Estates Al03 K         Y         1BR Location & Price! 

$   299,000      Villas at Kenolio 9A (New)      NK      N         3BR Nice & Price! 

$   299,900      Kihei Akahi D210                    SK       Y         1BR (REO) Views & Price! 

  

$   329,900      Ka Ani Village 2204                 SK       N         2BR Price & New! 

$   314,900      Maalaea Kai 315                      M         Y         1BR (REO) Oceanfront! 

$   358,900      Kai Makani 34-203                  NK      N         2BR (REO) Price! 

$   399,000      Luana Kai A201                       NK      Y         1BR Price & Oceanfront! 

$   399,000      Waiohuli Bch Duplex                SK       Y         2BR (short sale) Oceanfront! 

$   449,000      Menehune Shores 225              NK      Y         2BR Nice Oceanfront Unit! 

  

$   560,000      Wailea FW Villas P-103            W        N         2BR On GC & Beautiful

$   670,000      Wailea Ekolu 304                     W        Y         1BR GC & Oceanviews! 

$   695,000      Wailea Ekolu 1405                   W        Y         2BR Price, Quiet Oceanviews 

$   695,000      Wailea Palms 3708                   W        N         1BR Price Loc & Views 

$   699,000      Wailea FW Villas Y103            W        N         3BR (short sale) GC & Price! 

  

$   729,000      Royal Mauian 508                    SK       Y         1BR Beautiful Oceanfront! 

$   795,000      Grand Champions 159  W       Y         3BR On GC & Oceanviews!    

$   779,900      Kai Malu 18A (New)               W       N         3BR (REO) Res Condo! 

$   799,000      Kanani Wailea 4                       SK       N         3BR (short sale) Res Condo! 

$   999,000      Hokulani Golf Villa 4    SK       N         2BR Res Golf Course Condo! 

  

$1,150,000      Hale Hui Kai 210                     SK       Y         2BR Beautiful Oceanfront! 

$1,249,000      Royal Mauian 610                    SK       Y         2BR Beautiful Oceanfront! 

$1,750,000      Hoolei T-6                               W        Y         3BR New, Large, Price! 

  

$2,350,000      Wailea Point 2801                    W        N         2BR Spectacular Oceanfront! 

$2,700,000      Makena Surf B206                   Mak     Y         2BR Spectacular Oceanfront! 

$2,950,000      Polo Beach 802                        W        Y         2BR Spectacular Oceanfront! 

So Maui Best Buys

 

South Maui Condominium 

Best Buy List 

As of December 30, 2009 

  

Price                Condominium             Loc      Vac      Comments 

  

$   129,000      85 Walaka St #9                      SK       N         1BR Location, Price! 

$   150,000      Kalama Terrace P301 (New)   SK       Y         1BR Corner Unit, Price! 

$   175,000      Kihei Shores 1101                    SK       N         3BR (short sale) Price! 

$   189,900      Kihei Resort 127                      NK      Y         1BR (REO) Price! 

$   199,000      Keonekai Vill 8-202 (New)      NK      N         2BR Nice & Price! 

  

$   219,000      Kihei Kai Nani 130                  SK       Y         1BR Location, Price! 

$   225,000      Maui Vista 1104 (New)            SK       Y         1BR (short sale) Price! 

$   229,500      Kihei Gar Estates Al03 K         Y         1BR Location & Price! 

$   299,000      Villas at Kenolio 9A (New)      NK      N         3BR Nice & Price! 

$   299,900      Kihei Akahi D210                    SK       Y         1BR (REO) Views & Price! 

  

$   329,900      Ka Ani Village 2204                 SK       N         2BR Price & New! 

$   314,900      Maalaea Kai 315                      M         Y         1BR (REO) Oceanfront! 

$   358,900      Kai Makani 34-203                  NK      N         2BR (REO) Price! 

$   399,000      Luana Kai A201                       NK      Y         1BR Price & Oceanfront! 

$   399,000      Waiohuli Bch Duplex                SK       Y         2BR (short sale) Oceanfront! 

$   449,000      Menehune Shores 225              NK      Y         2BR Nice Oceanfront Unit! 

  

$   560,000      Wailea FW Villas P-103            W        N         2BR On GC & Beautiful

$   670,000      Wailea Ekolu 304                     W        Y         1BR GC & Oceanviews! 

$   695,000      Wailea Ekolu 1405                   W        Y         2BR Price, Quiet Oceanviews 

$   695,000      Wailea Palms 3708                   W        N         1BR Price Loc & Views 

$   699,000      Wailea FW Villas Y103            W        N         3BR (short sale) GC & Price! 

  

$   729,000      Royal Mauian 508                    SK       Y         1BR Beautiful Oceanfront! 

$   795,000      Grand Champions 159  W       Y         3BR On GC & Oceanviews!    

$   779,900      Kai Malu 18A (New)               W       N         3BR (REO) Res Condo! 

$   799,000      Kanani Wailea 4                       SK       N         3BR (short sale) Res Condo! 

$   999,000      Hokulani Golf Villa 4    SK       N         2BR Res Golf Course Condo! 

  

$1,150,000      Hale Hui Kai 210                     SK       Y         2BR Beautiful Oceanfront! 

$1,249,000      Royal Mauian 610                    SK       Y         2BR Beautiful Oceanfront! 

$1,750,000      Hoolei T-6                               W        Y         3BR New, Large, Price! 

  

$2,350,000      Wailea Point 2801                    W        N         2BR Spectacular Oceanfront! 

$2,700,000      Makena Surf B206                   Mak     Y         2BR Spectacular Oceanfront! 

$2,950,000      Polo Beach 802                        W        Y         2BR Spectacular Oceanfront! 

MELE KALIKIMAKA!

U.S. Monthly House Price Index Shows 0.6 Percent Increase 

From September To October 2009 

 

Washington, DC – U.S. house prices rose 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis 

from September to October, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly 

House Price Index. The previously reported 0.0 (zero) percent change in September was 

revised to a 0.4 percent decline. For the 12 months ending in October, U.S. prices fell 1.9 

percent. The U.S. index is 10.8 percent below its April 2007 peak. 

 

The FHFA monthly index is calculated using purchase prices of houses backing mortgages 

that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. For the nine Census 

Divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from September to October ranged 

from – 1.1 percent in the South Atlantic Division to + 3.7 percent in the Pacific Division.